This is from a fellow blogger’s site.
I promised a post about Super Tuesday yesterday, and didn’t get it finished … frankly, between a world-record-breaking-sloppy diaper and the resulting laundry, I had other things to do.
As I said in my Florida post, I don’t think that Mayor Giuliani will be a major factor by then. I expect the slow death of his campaign to escalate after his third-place finish in Florida, which is vital to his campaign. Everything I say after this is predicated on that.
I’m also going to say a lot less than I was writing yesterday.
I realize that I’ve previously said that I think Ron Paul is winning nothing … with a weak showing in NH, I figured he was done. That didn’t stop him from a second-place finish in the Louisiana caucus, so I have to rethink that. As frequent commenter Tam has noted, he has a good shot at Alaska. It’s the state with as strong a Libertarian reputation as NH. Maybe more, at this point. Another commenter predicts a win in West Virginia. I don’t know if I agree, but I’ll say that those are his good shots at wins.
Mike Huckabee will do well in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia … without looking at any polls for those states, I think that those are his likely wins. I’m not sure about other states.
Mitt Romney will carry Utah, but I can’t say why because that’s off-limits for Huckabee supporters these days. (But has anyone noticed that the “t” in “Utah” looks kind of like a floating cross? I wonder what that means!) He’ll also probably carry Massachusetts, since it’s a primary. (Most people accept that he wasn’t going to win if he’d gone for re-election.)
I expect the West to be good to Mike Huckabee, as well. Arizona, Colorado, and such might be wins, or at least strong finishes.
Read the rest at Super Tuesday « A True Believer’s Weblog
